A Look at the USDCAD and the EURGBP
Please read the Risk Disclaimer prior to reading this post
Risk Disclaimer
I had a request from a friend from our favorite forum to give them my opinion of two pairs they are considering. The USDCAD and the EURGBP.
Ok here we go with the Cad first. There is a reason they call this currency the Loonie. It often behaves in ways that are well not Technically or Fundamentally in line with what the charts or the news is saying and will often move the opposite or in the right manner. In other words hard to gauge.
But let’s have a look.
I need to look at the Weekly to get some idea of where it is headed. What we see is a break out from an expanding flat top triangle. Now flat top triangles are one of my favorite patterns. But not when they are expanding. Expanding triangles denote market confusion at its worst. You see bigger counter moves up and down on each range bound swing. These are hard to trade and will give a low W/L ratio because of the confusion. Triangles should have compression building into a vortex type formation until bang a massive move. Now we actually did get that kind of move from the cad last week finally breaking out of the confusion of the expanding triangle and may be tradable in the coming sessions. We need a pullback and looks easiest to see on the weekly chart. You know if you stand back from your monitor and look at this pair you can see just how Loonie it looks hehe. So to trade this we need a pullback to where.
On the chart we have the breakout of the top of the triangle and a very Ugly trend line. It is a stretch to say this is in a trend but there is two points on the move down so we marked it.
So wait for a pull back to around 1.0065 area and look for a valid bounce or the old saying once resistance now may work as support(at that point you can zoom to your preferred trigger chart for confirmation). Some may trade the move back down but we do not trade in No-Mans land or try and call tops or bottoms. We mark Key levels of S/R and wait for price to give us its next direction. Now if price does not hold at 1.0065 and goes back into the triangle we will not trade it. So, Plan here is Breakout, Pullback, Bounce. Sounds easy Huh?? well it really is that simple. Biggest problem is the waiting.
USDCAD Weekly Chart
Ok Now lets look at the EURGBP
All right now this pair is looking promising. But first some sentiment info, Britain and Europe are very close economically speaking. But, right now Britain has given the EU an ultimatum. The PM said, "MAKE UP OR BREAKUP". This could be the catalyst we need to move this pair. I am looking into the Monthly on this one.
We see a very well defined Flat Bottom Triangle. We already know what we want here. A breakout to the downside. But right now we are getting a fake breakout. Price has attempted to break the Support Line at .8080 and is getting rejected.
Now there are two posiblities here.
1. Wait for the candle to close to see if we do have a fake breakout and trade the bounce back up to the leaning trend line of the triangle it is about 300-400 pip possible move.
2.Wait for the breakout. Now the key here is the Wait. This is on the monthly chart. It will be at least the end of this month and the next to confirm. Why. Breakout, Pullback, Bounce(continuaton). The potential pips this direction is the next Major S/R level around .7265 or 800 pips. From the looks of the current candle we may get another up move before breaking out of the triangle.
I Have this pair on my long term watch list.
EURGBP Monthly Chart
Well there is my look at the USDCAD and the EURGBP.
Please leave your comments and thoughts on this Post.
thank you
Little Al for Golden Goose Mgt. Grp
Good luck with your trading
Risk Disclaimer
I had a request from a friend from our favorite forum to give them my opinion of two pairs they are considering. The USDCAD and the EURGBP.
Ok here we go with the Cad first. There is a reason they call this currency the Loonie. It often behaves in ways that are well not Technically or Fundamentally in line with what the charts or the news is saying and will often move the opposite or in the right manner. In other words hard to gauge.
But let’s have a look.
I need to look at the Weekly to get some idea of where it is headed. What we see is a break out from an expanding flat top triangle. Now flat top triangles are one of my favorite patterns. But not when they are expanding. Expanding triangles denote market confusion at its worst. You see bigger counter moves up and down on each range bound swing. These are hard to trade and will give a low W/L ratio because of the confusion. Triangles should have compression building into a vortex type formation until bang a massive move. Now we actually did get that kind of move from the cad last week finally breaking out of the confusion of the expanding triangle and may be tradable in the coming sessions. We need a pullback and looks easiest to see on the weekly chart. You know if you stand back from your monitor and look at this pair you can see just how Loonie it looks hehe. So to trade this we need a pullback to where.
On the chart we have the breakout of the top of the triangle and a very Ugly trend line. It is a stretch to say this is in a trend but there is two points on the move down so we marked it.
So wait for a pull back to around 1.0065 area and look for a valid bounce or the old saying once resistance now may work as support(at that point you can zoom to your preferred trigger chart for confirmation). Some may trade the move back down but we do not trade in No-Mans land or try and call tops or bottoms. We mark Key levels of S/R and wait for price to give us its next direction. Now if price does not hold at 1.0065 and goes back into the triangle we will not trade it. So, Plan here is Breakout, Pullback, Bounce. Sounds easy Huh?? well it really is that simple. Biggest problem is the waiting.
USDCAD Weekly Chart
Ok Now lets look at the EURGBP
All right now this pair is looking promising. But first some sentiment info, Britain and Europe are very close economically speaking. But, right now Britain has given the EU an ultimatum. The PM said, "MAKE UP OR BREAKUP". This could be the catalyst we need to move this pair. I am looking into the Monthly on this one.
We see a very well defined Flat Bottom Triangle. We already know what we want here. A breakout to the downside. But right now we are getting a fake breakout. Price has attempted to break the Support Line at .8080 and is getting rejected.
Now there are two posiblities here.
1. Wait for the candle to close to see if we do have a fake breakout and trade the bounce back up to the leaning trend line of the triangle it is about 300-400 pip possible move.
2.Wait for the breakout. Now the key here is the Wait. This is on the monthly chart. It will be at least the end of this month and the next to confirm. Why. Breakout, Pullback, Bounce(continuaton). The potential pips this direction is the next Major S/R level around .7265 or 800 pips. From the looks of the current candle we may get another up move before breaking out of the triangle.
I Have this pair on my long term watch list.
EURGBP Monthly Chart
Well there is my look at the USDCAD and the EURGBP.
Please leave your comments and thoughts on this Post.
thank you
Little Al for Golden Goose Mgt. Grp
Good luck with your trading
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