USD Index Eyes Fresh Highs Ahead Of NFPs, Euro Searches For Support

Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.28 higher from the open, the greenback continues to threaten the upward trend from the beginning of the month, and the dollar may mark a fresh high before turning lower as the flight to safety gathers pace. As the ongoing turmoil in Europe continues to drag on investor confidence, the headline-driven market may continue to prop up the greenback, and we may see a fairly muted pullback in the USD as it benefits from safe-haven flows. In turn, the dollar may hold steady ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report, and a positive development may spark a fresh high in the index as the Federal Reserve continues to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy.

The daily chart continues to foreshadow a short-term correction for the USDOLLAR as the relative strength index continues to come off of overbought territory, and we are waiting to see the 10-Day SMA (10,154) give way to see a reversal take shape. However, it seems as though the FOMC is moving away from its easing cycle as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path, and the shift in the policy outlook instills a bullish forecast for the greenback as there appears be a growing rift within the committee. In light of the dissenting views amongst Fed officials, there’s certainly limited scope of seeing another large-scale asset purchase program, and we may see the central bank start to discuss a tentative exit strategy amid the stickiness in underlying inflation. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are gradually pricing a rate hike for the next 12-months, and the rise in interest rate expectations may carry the dollar higher in the second-half of the year as the recovery gradually gathers pace.

Data Provided by DailyFX

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